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Scenario of the Third Invasion and Reoccupation of the South

Written by:
Ambassador Ali Abdullah Al-Bugairi

News about military and political situations are very concerning. In sum, they refer to the south as the next target of powers of 1994 ally. Military plans are complete for the third invasion of the south. These plans are clear.
There is an agreement between Al-Eslah and Al-Houthis to move the military situation in borderlines of the south as military units of Al-Eslah facilitate penetration of Al-Houthis through surrendering them certain military zones. This will push southern troops towards these borderline fronts and empty Aden from troops. Al-Eslah troops may take this chance and control Aden to isolate it from other governorates according to the following scenarios:
• Pulling southern troops out of Aden to borderlines and exterminate them. sending thousands of northern citizens, mostly military, to Aden as they are ready to initiate the tasks they are entitled to, with help of Mueen Abd Al-Malek’s government, to control the city.
• Overflooding Aden with suspicious Ethiopian immigrants to facilitate the invasion of southern governorates.
• Creating chaos through disturbing law and order with organized crime and illegal control over lands and properties.
• Overflooding Aden with drugs to destroy youth and manipulate their loyalty to their southern cause.
• Using media tools of Al-Eslah party to irritate the situation and spread rumors in addition to cloning conflicting southern political entities to divide the southern line.
In front of this serious threat, I call you all to be loyal to the bloods of martyrs and injured. We should all lineup regardless our visions or political situations. All these differences should vanish in our love of our country. We should preserve our country and defend it in addition to establishing our national identity and restoring our free independent southern state. therefore, I call the southern transitional council and all other southern components, including those who are connected to the legitimacy government, to discuss the situation and evaluate the threats facing our south on the military and political contexts. I also call the southern transitional council to adopt the project of forming “The Southern National Front” that includes all southern powers according to a code of ethics to face the scenarios of the third invasion.
To our brothers who are loyal to the legitimacy government I say: remember what happened before since the independence. The Arab South identity was abolished in 1967 and conflicts started in 1968 with coup against president Kahtan Al-Shuaibi, who was imprisoned to death. After that came the assassination of Faisal Abd Al-Latif Al-Shaibi in his detention and then the assassination of Mohamed Ali Haitham, followed by bombing the southern diplomats’ plan in April 30th, 1973. President Salem Rabia and President Ali Nasser Mohamed were eliminated and the south was surrendered to the north during the regimen of Ali Salem Al-Beed, who was eliminated later with all his companions. The first invasion was done by support of southern powers eliminated later, including Ahmed Musaed, Ahmed Al-Hasani, Salem Cotton, Abd Rabu Hady, Abdullah Eliwa and others. Now, history repeats itself.
In all cases and scenarios, the north plays directors while the south plays actor. Don’t be the tools for upcoming plans of enemies of the south.
Their plan is to send southern troops to the front to exterminate the southern transitional council and all other powers calling for freedom and independence. This means full collapse of the south. Their scenario is clear:
Al-Houthis move alonf fronts of Al-Dalia, Meris, Yafia and Karash while Al-Eslah surrenders its military posts to them to facilitate their advance towards southern governorates. Southern troops are then pushed to borderline fronts and empty Aden from defenses.
Military attack is launched on Aden to be under military control of Al-Eslah battalions moving under the flag of legitimacy. These are six fully equipped brigades stationed in Aden with backup of other brigades coming from Mareb in addition to other units from Taiz and other northern governorates, under the notion of “refugees”.
With the fall of Aden, other borderline governorates will fall one by one at hands of Al-Houthis. This will start negotiations so that Al-Eslah takes Hadhramaut while Al-Houthis take the rest of the south.
With complete invasion, negotiations between the two parties will succeed, under international supervision, and they will for a coalition government. This will ban the Arab Coalition from interfering into the Yemeni affairs.
This will end the southern dream of independence and we will return to ground zero. But this time, our people will lose hope and desire to continue the struggle.
To be sure of that, notice how media tools of the legitimacy are ignoring fights on the southern borders and how fights in the northern fronts stopped suddenly while Al-Houthis are allowed to transfer troops from the southern coast to southern borders.
The battel of Aden will be the most serious against the south. If Al-Eslah wins this battel, all liberal and independent-seeking powers of the south will be exterminated including the security belt, Hadhramaut and Shabwa Elites.
God is my Witness.

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